Getting the run game going…
Something that has seemingly escaped the Bucs offense for the past several seasons - 2015 might be the last true effective ground attack year for the squad - running the ball will be imperative to not just Tampa Bay’s potential ceiling as a team, but in establishing their newfound identity as an offense under new OC Liam Coen.
The bad news is they have to make up a lot of ground (no pun intended) in that area. The good news is that…well it can’t get any worse than it was last year.
Simply put, there was no team worse at rushing in the 2023 season than the Bucs, finishing last in both total yards (1509), and yards per carry (3.4), while also finishing last in rushes for 1st downs and 4th last in runs over 20 yards.
They lacked proper execution, consistency, explosiveness, and an overall level of physicality in one of the game's most crucial facets and needed to make significant changes. Well, enter new OC Liam Coen to get the ball rolling in that regard.
Old OC Dave Canales did a lot of things right, after all there’s a reason he got a head coaching job elsewhere after just 1 season calling plays. Stylizing the offense with beautiful pass sequencing and spread out, staple air-raid type designs, Canales did a terrific job playing to Baker Mayfield’s strengths in Tampa’s passing O last year, allowing for a major bounceback year when people had basically written him off as a QB in this league. Where Canales struggled, however, was blending that with a proper under center run game. Whether it be play calling or personnel (or in my mind a little of both), it simply didn't work last year. Nor the year before. Or the year before that. They needed to fundamentally change their approach and that’s where Coen comes in.
Coming from calling plays at Kentucky in 2021 and 2023 while formerly also serving with the Rams as their OC in 2022, Coen has a strong background in featuring the run game, and does so in very creative and aggressive ways.
Not afraid to call a lot of gap runs, despite predominantly being zone-based, the new Bucs OC has loved getting his lineman at Kentucky, particularly on the left side (ahem Tristan Wirfs), out in space on while setting up explosive plays in heavier personnels - an area where the Bucs have unsurprisingly struggled. Tampa Bay finished 3rd last in rushing EPA of teams with enough qualified snaps in 13 personnel (3 tight ends on the field), and 28th in 12 personnel rushing EPA (2 tight ends on the field) last season, while they were dead last in EPA in non shotgun runs (under center) last season. For reference, the Rams - despite not running a ton of 12 personnel - were 1st in rushing EPA from that grouping and 3rd in EPA in non shotgun runs in 2022 when Coen was OC. Huge discrepancy despite the overall level of talent on the field not being too dissimilar.
This success from heavier formations is critical to Coen’s entire gameplan, particularly when aligned in 2X2 sets with 2 wideouts on one side and 2 tight ends on the other. Having a 4 man surface like that allows for passing threats on one side and attached blocking threats on the other, and Coen has many different ways of attacking that.
Max Toscano, a friend of mine who does some X’s and O’s for the LSU Tigers, noted as much after a 2021 demolition of his team by Coen/Kentucky, noting that in that specific game he saw a bunch of different run concepts from that alignment alone, including zone read double arc, duo wrap, 18/19 ZAP (wide zone to a 2 TE surface), fly sweeps with a double arc, and many more.
(A zap call against a Bear front from an old Sean McVay playbook in Washington)
At the end of the day, there’s a clear difference between Coen’s success and the average OC in big boy formations, but why is it important to run from these heavier personnel sets? Why not just operate out of spread out looks since Baker is more comfortable with that? One word - explosives.
20+ run plays almost always come out of bigger groupings, either 21 or 12 personnel given the extra gaps it creates, and almost all of the top rushing teams in the league are effective in this regard. Although 11 personnel rushes tend to be more efficient, it lacks the same box-count swaying and home-run hitting influence that the bigger looks do and it’s one of the main reasons I’m so bullish on Coen. He ran 12 with success in LA and especially at Kentucky - a lot. Although I’m not sure the Bucs have great personnel in place for this - the jury is very much out on Ko Kieft to receive a large amount of reps and be a critical piece as a blocker - Coen’s offense at the very least should indicate a significant uptick in under center explosiveness this season, especially with rookie Graham Barton added to the line and Coen’s recent production in this regard.
In 2022 the Rams had 9.4% of their runs go for explosive plays out of 12 personnel. Without Coen in 2023 that rate dropped to 4.4% despite a very similar roster in place. Impressive stuff.
Additionally, where Coen will bring a new spark and energy to the run game will be with the uptick in sweeps and motion from tighter formations to create more advantageous run game angles. Very much a coordinator who designs to his players skillsets, Coen established in 2021 with future Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson that he was going to get him the ball in the run game from all sorts of formations and playcalls, again with 12 personnel being a theme. Perhaps Trey Palmer and his speed are used in a similar fashion this season.
Coen’s use of motion as a McVay disciple has already drawn the attention and praise of several Bucs players and defenders this off-season, with SirVocea Dennis mentioning as much in a training camp presser in late July. It adds an extra bit of eye-candy and problems for defenses in ways that stationary run calls just don’t, and you see it especially with McVay at the NFL level. Jet motion was utilized on over half of Kyren Williams’ (the Rams leading RB) carries last season, which was by far the highest amount of any team in the league. Spreading the defense out with these looks and then running counter to it with tight ends wrapping out as lead blockers is essential to the McVay tree run game and something Coen uses often.
Specifically, Coen will call “duo wrap” to an eventual two tight end side of the formation a lot, often with a WR like Wan’Dale Robinson motioning to the opposite side as deception and the off the line of scrimmage TE then wrapping as the lead blocker.
(A diagram of duo wrap courtesy of Bobby Peters of Alert the Post)
Furthermore, because of the interchangeability between tight ends and receivers within McVay/Coen offenses, this lead wrapper can oftentimes be another wideout, further creating confusion for defenses. This receiver has to either be a bigger more punishing physical type in almost a tight end sort of body (Mike Evans) or just a good blocker willing to do dirty work (Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan) in order for it to actually work, so Tampa certainly has the personnel in place to make this an effective part of their offense.
Ultimately, although blending Baker’s air raid style with an effective under center run game remains to be seen, getting that effective under center ground attack first is the most crucial part of Tampa Bay hitting their ceiling as a football club and something I have no hesitation in Coen bringing to the squad.
Showing a multitude of different impressive things at Kentucky, Coen’s ability to use reverses, sweeps, and jets, and plenty of short motion to spread out defenses and create the gaps needed to break off chunk plays from heavier personnels has been so effective and nothing I don't see translating to the NFL level.
Add in improved offensive line personnel on the interior and I see only big improvement for the Bucs run game this season.
Getting the run game going…
Something that has seemingly escaped the Bucs offense for the past several seasons - 2015 might be the last true effective ground attack year for the squad - running the ball will be imperative to not just Tampa Bay’s potential ceiling as a team, but in establishing their newfound identity as an offense under new OC Liam Coen.
The bad news is they have to make up a lot of ground (no pun intended) in that area. The good news is that…well it can’t get any worse than it was last year.
Simply put, there was no team worse at rushing in the 2023 season than the Bucs, finishing last in both total yards (1509), and yards per carry (3.4), while also finishing last in rushes for 1st downs and 4th last in runs over 20 yards.
They lacked proper execution, consistency, explosiveness, and an overall level of physicality in one of the game's most crucial facets and needed to make significant changes. Well, enter new OC Liam Coen to get the ball rolling in that regard.
Old OC Dave Canales did a lot of things right, after all there’s a reason he got a head coaching job elsewhere after just 1 season calling plays. Stylizing the offense with beautiful pass sequencing and spread out, staple air-raid type designs, Canales did a terrific job playing to Baker Mayfield’s strengths in Tampa’s passing O last year, allowing for a major bounceback year when people had basically written him off as a QB in this league. Where Canales struggled, however, was blending that with a proper under center run game. Whether it be play calling or personnel (or in my mind a little of both), it simply didn't work last year. Nor the year before. Or the year before that. They needed to fundamentally change their approach and that’s where Coen comes in.
Coming from calling plays at Kentucky in 2021 and 2023 while formerly also serving with the Rams as their OC in 2022, Coen has a strong background in featuring the run game, and does so in very creative and aggressive ways.
Not afraid to call a lot of gap runs, despite predominantly being zone-based, the new Bucs OC has loved getting his lineman at Kentucky, particularly on the left side (ahem Tristan Wirfs), out in space on while setting up explosive plays in heavier personnels - an area where the Bucs have unsurprisingly struggled. Tampa Bay finished 3rd last in rushing EPA of teams with enough qualified snaps in 13 personnel (3 tight ends on the field), and 28th in 12 personnel rushing EPA (2 tight ends on the field) last season, while they were dead last in EPA in non shotgun runs (under center) last season. For reference, the Rams - despite not running a ton of 12 personnel - were 1st in rushing EPA from that grouping and 3rd in EPA in non shotgun runs in 2022 when Coen was OC. Huge discrepancy despite the overall level of talent on the field not being too dissimilar.
This success from heavier formations is critical to Coen’s entire gameplan, particularly when aligned in 2X2 sets with 2 wideouts on one side and 2 tight ends on the other. Having a 4 man surface like that allows for passing threats on one side and attached blocking threats on the other, and Coen has many different ways of attacking that.
Max Toscano, a friend of mine who does some X’s and O’s for the LSU Tigers, noted as much after a 2021 demolition of his team by Coen/Kentucky, noting that in that specific game he saw a bunch of different run concepts from that alignment alone, including zone read double arc, duo wrap, 18/19 ZAP (wide zone to a 2 TE surface), fly sweeps with a double arc, and many more.
(A zap call against a Bear front from an old Sean McVay playbook in Washington)
At the end of the day, there’s a clear difference between Coen’s success and the average OC in big boy formations, but why is it important to run from these heavier personnel sets? Why not just operate out of spread out looks since Baker is more comfortable with that? One word - explosives.
20+ run plays almost always come out of bigger groupings, either 21 or 12 personnel given the extra gaps it creates, and almost all of the top rushing teams in the league are effective in this regard. Although 11 personnel rushes tend to be more efficient, it lacks the same box-count swaying and home-run hitting influence that the bigger looks do and it’s one of the main reasons I’m so bullish on Coen. He ran 12 with success in LA and especially at Kentucky - a lot. Although I’m not sure the Bucs have great personnel in place for this - the jury is very much out on Ko Kieft to receive a large amount of reps and be a critical piece as a blocker - Coen’s offense at the very least should indicate a significant uptick in under center explosiveness this season, especially with rookie Graham Barton added to the line and Coen’s recent production in this regard.
In 2022 the Rams had 9.4% of their runs go for explosive plays out of 12 personnel. Without Coen in 2023 that rate dropped to 4.4% despite a very similar roster in place. Impressive stuff.
Additionally, where Coen will bring a new spark and energy to the run game will be with the uptick in sweeps and motion from tighter formations to create more advantageous run game angles. Very much a coordinator who designs to his players skillsets, Coen established in 2021 with future Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson that he was going to get him the ball in the run game from all sorts of formations and playcalls, again with 12 personnel being a theme. Perhaps Trey Palmer and his speed are used in a similar fashion this season.
Coen’s use of motion as a McVay disciple has already drawn the attention and praise of several Bucs players and defenders this off-season, with SirVocea Dennis mentioning as much in a training camp presser in late July. It adds an extra bit of eye-candy and problems for defenses in ways that stationary run calls just don’t, and you see it especially with McVay at the NFL level. Jet motion was utilized on over half of Kyren Williams’ (the Rams leading RB) carries last season, which was by far the highest amount of any team in the league. Spreading the defense out with these looks and then running counter to it with tight ends wrapping out as lead blockers is essential to the McVay tree run game and something Coen uses often.
Specifically, Coen will call “duo wrap” to an eventual two tight end side of the formation a lot, often with a WR like Wan’Dale Robinson motioning to the opposite side as deception and the off the line of scrimmage TE then wrapping as the lead blocker.
(A diagram of duo wrap courtesy of Bobby Peters of Alert the Post)
Furthermore, because of the interchangeability between tight ends and receivers within McVay/Coen offenses, this lead wrapper can oftentimes be another wideout, further creating confusion for defenses. This receiver has to either be a bigger more punishing physical type in almost a tight end sort of body (Mike Evans) or just a good blocker willing to do dirty work (Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan) in order for it to actually work, so Tampa certainly has the personnel in place to make this an effective part of their offense.
Ultimately, although blending Baker’s air raid style with an effective under center run game remains to be seen, getting that effective under center ground attack first is the most crucial part of Tampa Bay hitting their ceiling as a football club and something I have no hesitation in Coen bringing to the squad.
Showing a multitude of different impressive things at Kentucky, Coen’s ability to use reverses, sweeps, and jets, and plenty of short motion to spread out defenses and create the gaps needed to break off chunk plays from heavier personnels has been so effective and nothing I don't see translating to the NFL level.
Add in improved offensive line personnel on the interior and I see only big improvement for the Bucs run game this season.
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