One. Thousand. Yards.
Three words that have become synonymous with Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans throughout his illustrious 10-year professional career. Simply put, no matter what is placed in front of him, Evans is getting to that esteemed benchmark every season with relative ease, posting casual Hall of Fame numbers in the process. For that reason, Evans is widely respected and well-known around the league, especially after a Super Bowl ring cemented his legacy as a winner and not just a stat collector on porous yet entertaining Tampa teams.
Still, despite the overall recognition, people have ended up mischaracterizing Evans as a wideout over time, and it's become extremely apparent doing 2023/24 season review study for The 813 that he isn't the receiver so many label him as. It's time to put the misrepresentation to bed.
To cap off a prolific initial decade in the league, let's look at who Evans really has become and give him his flowers as a perennially elite wideout in the National Football League.
Route Runner First
Contrary to popular belief given his size, Evans is a route-running receiver first and foremost, and a contested catcher and big physical presence second.
When you look at the faults in his game, outside of the occasional relaxed play off, it's often Evan's inability to come up with balls in high point or open situations that comes to mind as weaknesses, as opposed to struggling to actually find space or win leverage in creation and separation spots. This points to a route-running receiver with inconsistencies in his catch-point game despite having the ability to outmuscle or outwork any player in jump-ball situations.
He's a route-runner at heart, and a damn good one at that.
The three routes most often used by Evans for success, and the three most often misinterpreted as contested catch type routes (just because it's harder to gain separation vertically), are 'go', 'corner', and 'post' routes. In 2023 for instance, Evans led the league in yards per route run on ‘post’ routes per Sports Info Solutions, and finished 2nd on 'go' routes, only to Seattle's D.K. Metcalf. He excels on these routes, but it isn't because he's outmuscling at the catch point consistently on them or making crazy one-handed snags in the faces of defenders.
Because all three of these routes are vertical and tough to create separation on, the assumption is Evans wins them by using his dangly long legs to stretch downfield and basketball-style box outs to win at the catch point. And yes, sometimes that's true. But going back 6 years now, Evans has only ranked top 10 in contested catch rate once per Player Profiler. More often than not he wins on these routes by creating separation through nuanced route-running techniques, incorporating an advanced understanding of leverage, initiating contact at the right moments, and setting up alternative routes to keep corners guessing.
Additionally, an extension of the 'go' route is the 'fade' route near the end zone, and this is where contested catchers really make their money. You see the likes of Mike Williams and some of the league's true elite contested catchers thrive here. Evans also usually does as well. However, he didn't have a single 'fade' route TD in 2023 (out of all 14 of them), although he won on 'whip' routes and slants near the goal line on multiple occasions, routes often put in place for smaller and shiftier wideouts.
It's not to say he can't win big with fades and post-up style moves in tighter red-zone situations and he has often in the past, but a lot of the time, he doesn't have to, rather using his intimidating presence as a decoy of sorts to set himself up for different and more efficient styles of success.
So, ultimately, is Evans a hulking physical presence who wins downfield routes and plays most of his snaps outside as a big, hard-nosed X-receiver? Yes. But he's also a crafty, diverse wideout who creates separation first and foremost in large part due to his underrated route-running skills. The two don't always go hand in hand, and it's why he's gotten the reputation he has - you don't see guys his size often built with his intricacies - but we have to remember to praise Evans the route-runner first instead of second moving forward.
He wasn't always like this, his game has matured over time and I'm pretty sure his mossing of Alabama for nearly 300 yards over 10 years ago still reigns in people's minds, but you don't get to have the consistency and longevity at the position in today's day and age without route-running being your calling card as a wide receiver.
Adaptability
Moving on a little from his playstyle, one of the truly remarkable things throughout Evans' career has been how he's won with different things being asked of him. Throughout his career the core principles to his game have still remained the same but his surroundings have altered drastically. His QBs have changed. His slot snap percentages have changed. His average depth of target has changed. His catchable target rates have changed. Yet his production hasn't waned.
During the Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick era at QB in 2018 specifically, Evans played only 17.6% of his snaps from the slot and had 15.7 average air yards intended on every throw. His earned points added per route run (EPA/route run) ranked in the top 10 in the league at 0.102, and he was successful as Winston/Fitzpatrick slung that thing down the field in isolation coverages. Meanwhile, in 2020 with Brady, Evans' slot rates rose to 37.9%, and his air yards lowered to 12.8 yards per attempt. The ideology behind this was quicker and shorter routes in more advantageous positions all around the field, and guess what? Evans could do that, too. His EPA/route run stayed right around the same mark at 0.096.
So why are his skills transferable to different styles? Because of his advanced understanding of the position and ability to be more than one thing.
Sounds like a route-runner to me.
He's not slowing down
Despite many thinking new QB Baker Mayfield would hurt Evans and potentially end his one thousand yard streak in 2023, the exact opposite came to fruition last season, with Evans having one of his best years as a pro and his most EPA/route run in the past 6 years (0.117). Accounting for over 41% of his team's air yards, Evans WAS the entire downfield presence of the team, a tall task for a player who remained efficient despite Baker's inconsistency as a passer coming into play at times.
Averaging 2.33 yards per individual route run, a rank good for 11th in the league - no small feat considering the difficulty and verticality of routes Evans was dealing with - Evans was extremely efficient despite constantly being bracketed and double covered, with his gravity allowing for many underneath dump-offs to RB Rachaad White in the passing game.
(Evans gravity on display against Jacksonville last season)
Teams were petrified to leave him one-on-one, although OC Dave Canales did a great job designing passing plays to increase his level of cushion on defenders. Having an average cushion rate of about 5.3 yards before last season, according to NextGenStats, Canales schemed Evans all the way up to about 6.6 yards last season, a nice increase that allowed him more build-up speed to work into defenders and use his long strides to eat into leverage. New OC Liam Coen can hopefully keep this trend alive next season, as with tightened splits and Evans potentially being inline more often, he may once again face this extended cushion.
The only negative to Evans' statistical profile was his catch rate fell down to 58.5% last year, a low rate for a supposed top wideout, but that was only because, according to Player Profiler, 65.9% of passes thrown his way were actually catchable - a meager rate that speaks more to Baker and the difficulty of route concepts he was being asked to execute more than Evans himself. For example, in Brady's 3 years as QB, Evans' catchable rate was never under 72%, and as a result, his catch rate stayed above 60% the entire time.
All this to say he was still efficient despite it maybe not seeming like it on the surface. He maybe had a few more drops than usual, but he was at the mercy of his QB and difficult design patterns more than anything.
Conclusion
Ultimately, Evans may be aging, but he isn't slowing down yet, and before it's too late, we need to give credit to who Evans - the real Evans - is. Judging by last season, we still have plenty of time before that comes to fruition, but why not start now?
One. Thousand. Yards.
Three words that have become synonymous with Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans throughout his illustrious 10-year professional career. Simply put, no matter what is placed in front of him, Evans is getting to that esteemed benchmark every season with relative ease, posting casual Hall of Fame numbers in the process. For that reason, Evans is widely respected and well-known around the league, especially after a Super Bowl ring cemented his legacy as a winner and not just a stat collector on porous yet entertaining Tampa teams.
Still, despite the overall recognition, people have ended up mischaracterizing Evans as a wideout over time, and it's become extremely apparent doing 2023/24 season review study for The 813 that he isn't the receiver so many label him as. It's time to put the misrepresentation to bed.
To cap off a prolific initial decade in the league, let's look at who Evans really has become and give him his flowers as a perennially elite wideout in the National Football League.
Route Runner First
Contrary to popular belief given his size, Evans is a route-running receiver first and foremost, and a contested catcher and big physical presence second.
When you look at the faults in his game, outside of the occasional relaxed play off, it's often Evan's inability to come up with balls in high point or open situations that comes to mind as weaknesses, as opposed to struggling to actually find space or win leverage in creation and separation spots. This points to a route-running receiver with inconsistencies in his catch-point game despite having the ability to outmuscle or outwork any player in jump-ball situations.
He's a route-runner at heart, and a damn good one at that.
The three routes most often used by Evans for success, and the three most often misinterpreted as contested catch type routes (just because it's harder to gain separation vertically), are 'go', 'corner', and 'post' routes. In 2023 for instance, Evans led the league in yards per route run on ‘post’ routes per Sports Info Solutions, and finished 2nd on 'go' routes, only to Seattle's D.K. Metcalf. He excels on these routes, but it isn't because he's outmuscling at the catch point consistently on them or making crazy one-handed snags in the faces of defenders.
Because all three of these routes are vertical and tough to create separation on, the assumption is Evans wins them by using his dangly long legs to stretch downfield and basketball-style box outs to win at the catch point. And yes, sometimes that's true. But going back 6 years now, Evans has only ranked top 10 in contested catch rate once per Player Profiler. More often than not he wins on these routes by creating separation through nuanced route-running techniques, incorporating an advanced understanding of leverage, initiating contact at the right moments, and setting up alternative routes to keep corners guessing.
Additionally, an extension of the 'go' route is the 'fade' route near the end zone, and this is where contested catchers really make their money. You see the likes of Mike Williams and some of the league's true elite contested catchers thrive here. Evans also usually does as well. However, he didn't have a single 'fade' route TD in 2023 (out of all 14 of them), although he won on 'whip' routes and slants near the goal line on multiple occasions, routes often put in place for smaller and shiftier wideouts.
It's not to say he can't win big with fades and post-up style moves in tighter red-zone situations and he has often in the past, but a lot of the time, he doesn't have to, rather using his intimidating presence as a decoy of sorts to set himself up for different and more efficient styles of success.
So, ultimately, is Evans a hulking physical presence who wins downfield routes and plays most of his snaps outside as a big, hard-nosed X-receiver? Yes. But he's also a crafty, diverse wideout who creates separation first and foremost in large part due to his underrated route-running skills. The two don't always go hand in hand, and it's why he's gotten the reputation he has - you don't see guys his size often built with his intricacies - but we have to remember to praise Evans the route-runner first instead of second moving forward.
He wasn't always like this, his game has matured over time and I'm pretty sure his mossing of Alabama for nearly 300 yards over 10 years ago still reigns in people's minds, but you don't get to have the consistency and longevity at the position in today's day and age without route-running being your calling card as a wide receiver.
Adaptability
Moving on a little from his playstyle, one of the truly remarkable things throughout Evans' career has been how he's won with different things being asked of him. Throughout his career the core principles to his game have still remained the same but his surroundings have altered drastically. His QBs have changed. His slot snap percentages have changed. His average depth of target has changed. His catchable target rates have changed. Yet his production hasn't waned.
During the Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick era at QB in 2018 specifically, Evans played only 17.6% of his snaps from the slot and had 15.7 average air yards intended on every throw. His earned points added per route run (EPA/route run) ranked in the top 10 in the league at 0.102, and he was successful as Winston/Fitzpatrick slung that thing down the field in isolation coverages. Meanwhile, in 2020 with Brady, Evans' slot rates rose to 37.9%, and his air yards lowered to 12.8 yards per attempt. The ideology behind this was quicker and shorter routes in more advantageous positions all around the field, and guess what? Evans could do that, too. His EPA/route run stayed right around the same mark at 0.096.
So why are his skills transferable to different styles? Because of his advanced understanding of the position and ability to be more than one thing.
Sounds like a route-runner to me.
He's not slowing down
Despite many thinking new QB Baker Mayfield would hurt Evans and potentially end his one thousand yard streak in 2023, the exact opposite came to fruition last season, with Evans having one of his best years as a pro and his most EPA/route run in the past 6 years (0.117). Accounting for over 41% of his team's air yards, Evans WAS the entire downfield presence of the team, a tall task for a player who remained efficient despite Baker's inconsistency as a passer coming into play at times.
Averaging 2.33 yards per individual route run, a rank good for 11th in the league - no small feat considering the difficulty and verticality of routes Evans was dealing with - Evans was extremely efficient despite constantly being bracketed and double covered, with his gravity allowing for many underneath dump-offs to RB Rachaad White in the passing game.
(Evans gravity on display against Jacksonville last season)
Teams were petrified to leave him one-on-one, although OC Dave Canales did a great job designing passing plays to increase his level of cushion on defenders. Having an average cushion rate of about 5.3 yards before last season, according to NextGenStats, Canales schemed Evans all the way up to about 6.6 yards last season, a nice increase that allowed him more build-up speed to work into defenders and use his long strides to eat into leverage. New OC Liam Coen can hopefully keep this trend alive next season, as with tightened splits and Evans potentially being inline more often, he may once again face this extended cushion.
The only negative to Evans' statistical profile was his catch rate fell down to 58.5% last year, a low rate for a supposed top wideout, but that was only because, according to Player Profiler, 65.9% of passes thrown his way were actually catchable - a meager rate that speaks more to Baker and the difficulty of route concepts he was being asked to execute more than Evans himself. For example, in Brady's 3 years as QB, Evans' catchable rate was never under 72%, and as a result, his catch rate stayed above 60% the entire time.
All this to say he was still efficient despite it maybe not seeming like it on the surface. He maybe had a few more drops than usual, but he was at the mercy of his QB and difficult design patterns more than anything.
Conclusion
Ultimately, Evans may be aging, but he isn't slowing down yet, and before it's too late, we need to give credit to who Evans - the real Evans - is. Judging by last season, we still have plenty of time before that comes to fruition, but why not start now?
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