The Buccaneers are in a tough spot. They lost a winnable game on Monday night to the Chiefs and now, on a short week, they have to face the 49ers who appear on track to see the return of their superstar Christian McCaffrey. Kyle Shanahan has never lost when facing Todd Bowles and he seems to know exactly how to attack a Bowles defense in order to get a lot of points in a hurry.
So how do the Bucs pull off an upset at home and keep their playoff hopes on track? A loss on Sunday drops the Bucs’ playoff chances to 23% so while it’s not impossible for them to make the postseason with a loss, it certainly makes the road a lot harder.
Run The Ball
I know at this point I sound like a broken record, but for the Buccaneers the best defense is a good offense. Running the ball with all three running backs - and doing so successfully - helps control the clock and keeps the Bucs’ defense on the sideline. Having these twelve, fourteen play drives that end in touchdowns is something the Bucs have been able to accomplish even without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the field. Not only have they done it successfully, but they’ve done so against the top two run defenses in the NFL.
The 49ers aren’t quite that good, but they are in the top ten of run defenses in the league - allowing just over 105 yards per game. The biggest thing for the Bucs is to get Sean Tucker more involved. No, he isn’t nearly as good of a pass blocker as Rachaad White, but that doesn’t mean he should be relegated to three carries a game. The Bucs offense as a whole will benefit from the bruising style of Tucker who will take a toll on defenders before guys like Rachaad and Bucky Irving get to hit them with their speed and quickness. Tucker wears defenders down and that has ripple effects for the rest of the offense that they can take advantage of. I promise, it will open things up later in the game.
Protect The Middle
I’m not sure we’ll see this done all season, but the Bucs have to find a way to stop leaving the middle of the field wide open for opposing offenses. George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Christian McCaffrey will have a field day against the Bucs if they get as much space as this defense has been giving. Travis Kelce is coming off his best game of the season, Kyle Pitts had his best game of the season two weeks ago - the safety nets for teams that can sit unbothered in the middle of the zone have been killing this defense - especially on third downs.
Shanahan loves nothing more than drawing up plays against zone defenses and he’s going to be licking his chops if the Bucs play the way they have most of the season. To be fair, if it hasn’t changed by now it probably isn’t going to and the Niners are going to have an easy time picking apart the defense - but we saw J.J. Russell filling in down the stretch for K.J. Britt so maybe Bowles is trying to get some things corrected. It’ll be up to the pass rush to not give Brock Purdy enough time to wait for the middle to open up - but this defense isn’t getting off the field if Purdy has an easy pitch-and-catch for eight yards every play.
Be Aggressive
This isn’t the game to play conservatively or to play scared. This team is going to have to take risks on both sides of the ball. Defensively, it may very well lead to explosive plays for the Niners - but this team has to take chances. Attack the ball and go for interceptions rather than not letting a guy behind you. Blitz everyone on key third downs so that hopefully you get to Purdy before routes develop. Strip and punch at the ball in exchange for two or three extra yards.
A takeaway might be the only way the defense gets off the field - and one turnover can make all the difference in a game like this. One timely interception, one timely sack can prove to give the Bucs just enough to squeak out a win. On the flip side, the offense has to take shots down the field. The Niners’ safeties have had trouble this season with speed, so you send Trey Palmer and Marquez Callaway deep and launch it to them - even against a really good pass rush.
Splash plays on defense and explosive plays on offense is how the Bucs are going to be able to compensate for not having key players on the field. It’s high risk, but it’s also high reward. You may give up a 50-yard touchdown going for the ball and letting a defender behind you and seeing them make the catch - but you might also turn the tide by stealing a possession from San Fran.
The Buccaneers are in a tough spot. They lost a winnable game on Monday night to the Chiefs and now, on a short week, they have to face the 49ers who appear on track to see the return of their superstar Christian McCaffrey. Kyle Shanahan has never lost when facing Todd Bowles and he seems to know exactly how to attack a Bowles defense in order to get a lot of points in a hurry.
So how do the Bucs pull off an upset at home and keep their playoff hopes on track? A loss on Sunday drops the Bucs’ playoff chances to 23% so while it’s not impossible for them to make the postseason with a loss, it certainly makes the road a lot harder.
Run The Ball
I know at this point I sound like a broken record, but for the Buccaneers the best defense is a good offense. Running the ball with all three running backs - and doing so successfully - helps control the clock and keeps the Bucs’ defense on the sideline. Having these twelve, fourteen play drives that end in touchdowns is something the Bucs have been able to accomplish even without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the field. Not only have they done it successfully, but they’ve done so against the top two run defenses in the NFL.
The 49ers aren’t quite that good, but they are in the top ten of run defenses in the league - allowing just over 105 yards per game. The biggest thing for the Bucs is to get Sean Tucker more involved. No, he isn’t nearly as good of a pass blocker as Rachaad White, but that doesn’t mean he should be relegated to three carries a game. The Bucs offense as a whole will benefit from the bruising style of Tucker who will take a toll on defenders before guys like Rachaad and Bucky Irving get to hit them with their speed and quickness. Tucker wears defenders down and that has ripple effects for the rest of the offense that they can take advantage of. I promise, it will open things up later in the game.
Protect The Middle
I’m not sure we’ll see this done all season, but the Bucs have to find a way to stop leaving the middle of the field wide open for opposing offenses. George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Christian McCaffrey will have a field day against the Bucs if they get as much space as this defense has been giving. Travis Kelce is coming off his best game of the season, Kyle Pitts had his best game of the season two weeks ago - the safety nets for teams that can sit unbothered in the middle of the zone have been killing this defense - especially on third downs.
Shanahan loves nothing more than drawing up plays against zone defenses and he’s going to be licking his chops if the Bucs play the way they have most of the season. To be fair, if it hasn’t changed by now it probably isn’t going to and the Niners are going to have an easy time picking apart the defense - but we saw J.J. Russell filling in down the stretch for K.J. Britt so maybe Bowles is trying to get some things corrected. It’ll be up to the pass rush to not give Brock Purdy enough time to wait for the middle to open up - but this defense isn’t getting off the field if Purdy has an easy pitch-and-catch for eight yards every play.
Be Aggressive
This isn’t the game to play conservatively or to play scared. This team is going to have to take risks on both sides of the ball. Defensively, it may very well lead to explosive plays for the Niners - but this team has to take chances. Attack the ball and go for interceptions rather than not letting a guy behind you. Blitz everyone on key third downs so that hopefully you get to Purdy before routes develop. Strip and punch at the ball in exchange for two or three extra yards.
A takeaway might be the only way the defense gets off the field - and one turnover can make all the difference in a game like this. One timely interception, one timely sack can prove to give the Bucs just enough to squeak out a win. On the flip side, the offense has to take shots down the field. The Niners’ safeties have had trouble this season with speed, so you send Trey Palmer and Marquez Callaway deep and launch it to them - even against a really good pass rush.
Splash plays on defense and explosive plays on offense is how the Bucs are going to be able to compensate for not having key players on the field. It’s high risk, but it’s also high reward. You may give up a 50-yard touchdown going for the ball and letting a defender behind you and seeing them make the catch - but you might also turn the tide by stealing a possession from San Fran.
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